Does Auburn Have a Chance Against Alabama?

The Iron Bowl. The greatest rivalry in college football and arguably in all of sports. A game fueled by nothing but pure hatred. Alabama will travel to Jordan Hare today to take on an Auburn team looking to redeem itself after a brutal loss to New Mexico State last week. Alabama is looking to keep their playoff hopes alive and keep their momentum going for the SEC Championship game. So, does Auburn have a chance at pulling off a big time upset? Let's discuss.

If you would have asked me this question around this time last week, I would have told you that Auburn absolutely has a chance to win this one. Going into New Mexico State, Auburn had won three straight pretty convincingly, including an absolute beatdown at Arkansas. It looked like Auburn had hit its peak and was going to cruise into the Iron Bowl with four straight wins. Then, out of nowhere, New Mexico State walks into Jordan Hare and dominates Auburn for 60 straight minutes. This left me and every other Auburn fan scratching our heads wondering what in the world happened to the team that just bullied SEC opponents for three straight weeks? Were we looking ahead? Were we sleepwalking? Were they just the better team? All of the above? Whatever it was, losing that one was a major blow. It certainly diminished my confidence regarding the Iron Bowl. Is there still hope?

Of course there's still hope. This is the biggest rivalry in college sports. Records, previous weeks, talent-gaps, throw all of that out the window. It doesn't matter. This is a week where the unthinkable happens. Just two years ago, I was in the stadium when a Bryan Harsin and TJ Finley led Auburn team would have topped #3 Bama had Tank Bigsby chosen to run out of bounds. Freshman Bo Nix helped Auburn beat maybe the most talented Alabama team of all time in 2021. I've seen lots of crazy things happen in this game, especially when it's in Jordan Hare.

So yes, there is hope. However, there is very little hope. I'm a huge Auburn fan, and I'm always going to hold out hope for my team. I'm also realistic. This is an Alabama team that is figuring out an offensive identity, a team with a dominant defense, a team that is playing their best football, a team that is headed by the best college football coach of all time, Nick Saban. If you think he doesn't respect this rivalry, you can think again. He won't be looking ahead to the Georgia game. He is 4-7 in Jordan Hare, so I am 100% sure that he has put his undivided attention into this one. Alabama is going to come ready to play. Because of this, I unfortunately think that Auburn stands very little chance. We are simply outmatched. Our guys are going to have to play flawless and Hugh Freeze is going to have to coach a flawless game if we want any shot at winning. The odds are slim.

Auburn has struggled this year with mobile quarterbacks. Alabama's offensive coordinator (Tommy Rees) has finally figured out how to use Jalen Milroe. He is at his best when he is mobile. If we let him run loose in the pocket, he will hang 500 total yards and 5 touchdowns on us. Auburn will have to put a dedicated spy on him and will have to set the edge and force him to throw in the pocket if we want to slow him down. That is much easier said than done. Milroe is incredibly elusive, so even with a spy, he is virtually unstoppable when he gets loose. This defensive front will have their hands full today. The secondary is going to have to make plays when given the opportunity. Milroe is a great runner, but he is liable to make a few mistakes when he throws it. He forces the ball into coverage quite often, so when our backs and safeties get an opportunity to make a play and turn him over, they are going to have to take advantage. Our offense won't be able to keep up otherwise.

Offensively, we can't afford to be conservative. No matter how good our defense plays, Alabama is going to put up points. I think the common denominator in all of our losses is that offensively, we play to not make mistakes rather than to create big plays. If Thorne is going to be our guy today, he is going to have to sling it a few times. I don't care if he makes a mistake or two. I don't want to lose this game because we refuse to throw the ball down the field. What do we have to lose? Nobody expects us to win. We are a bowl-eligible team with an opportunity to beat our biggest rival and put them out of playoff contention. Sling the ball down the field. No more of this run, quarterback draw, screen pass junk. Throw the ball down the field and at least give our guys an opportunity to make plays. The receivers have struggled with drops this year, but I would much rather see us lose because of dropped balls and picks than because we played conservatively and never gave ourselves a chance. Play every drive like we are down a touchdown with 2 minutes to go.

The line is currently set at Bama -14. I think this is a perfect line. If I was going to bet on this one, I would take Bama -14. As much as it burns my soul, I think that Saban is looking to prove a point to the playoff committee here. Alabama is currently on the outside looking in, so they will be motivated and looking to dominate. I just don't think we have the firepower to keep up. I hope that I'm wrong. Only time will tell.

Happy Iron Bowl day, and War Eagle!