Prediction Vs. Outcome - Auburn Football Season

At the beginning of the year, I posted my prediction on how each game this season would turn out. I am here to discuss the accuracy of these predictions.

I listed Auburn's floor as 6-6, their ceiling as 9-3, and my personal expectation of 8-4. So, according to my predictions, Auburn's record was as low as I figured it could be, and I believe that is a spot on analysis. We won the games we were meant to win, and we lost a couple of games that should have been ours. That will usually put you at your floor record wise.

I predicted that Auburn would begin the season with three straight wins. This didn't take much thought at all, as Auburn opened up with UMass, Cal, and Samford. I would like to add that I called the Cal game potentially being a trap game. I don't care how much more talented you are than your opponent, playing a game across the country at 10 PM will inevitably cause some issues. Luckily, Auburn was able to mount a game-winning drive and come out on top.

I then predicted that we would travel to Texas A&M and lose, and we did just that. A&M had the better athletes, and our offensive line struggled to slow down their rush. Auburn's defense made that game look a lot closer than it really was.

Auburn then played Georgia and LSU back-to-back, and I correctly predicted that we would drop both. I don't think anyone expected Auburn to win either of these, but I will say that the Georgia game turned out to be a lot closer than I expected. You can't be too upset with a one-possession loss to what I think will be this year's national champions, especially when you have a first-year head coach.

After that, we took on the Mississippi schools, and I got a little overconfident and said that we'd win both. We split the pair, losing to Ole Miss then following that with a convincing win over Mississippi State. Based on past experience, I thought Ole Miss would struggle to get going in Jordan Hare, but it turned out to be Auburn that would fail to gain any offensive traction in that one. At that point in the season, Auburn was still trying to figure out how to rotate quarterbacks efficiently, and nothing seemed to be clicking. It was the next week against Mississippi State that Freeze elected to stick with Throne as our full-time QB, and this decision proved to be a good one for the following weeks.

After Mississippi State, Auburn took on Vanderbilt and Arkansas, and we won both, just as I predicted. I wasn't buying the hype surrounding Arkansas at the beginning of the year. I just didn't really see any improvements in their roster from the previous season. Auburn dominated this matchup, scoring 21 early points and never looking back.

Then, Auburn took on New Mexico State in a game that I predicted would be a "no-doubter." Man oh man, did that turn out to be wrong. In my defense, I don't think anyone in the country could have predicted that New Mexico State would walk into Jordan Hare and beat Auburn so convincingly. I have recently learned that New Mexico State beat Hugh Freeze's prior school, Liberty, while he was still there. I'm not sure if Freeze had already begun discussions with other programs to be their head coach at that point. This could have been the reason behind that loss, or maybe Jerry Kill (New Mexico State HC) just has Hugh's number. If that's the case, I hope we never schedule them again. That game was a nightmare.

Then came the Iron Bowl. I predicted that Alabama would come out on top in a close one. I was correct, but I most certainly did not think it would be a hail mary throw on 4th and goal from the 31 yard line that would lead to Auburn's demise. Regardless of how I thought we would lose, I correctly predicted that one as well.

Had all of my predictions been correct. Auburn would have finished 8-4. Obviously, we are sitting at 6-6, so I incorrectly predicted two games. Overall, it was a pretty solid performance on my part. The Ole Miss prediction was a long-shot, but I'm an Auburn fan, so I think I should be allowed at least one long-shot a year. The New Mexico State loss still blows my mind, but after watching the Iron Bowl, it looks like that one was just a nasty case of not being where your feet are. I hope that Hugh learned his lesson there. I will say that I'm very glad that kind of loss didn't happen during a season where we could potentially be contending for the SEC.

So, did Hugh Freeze underperform this year since we finished at our floor? I personally would say no. As I have previously discussed, he has made it very clear that the majority of his energy and effort is being funneled into recruiting. He wasn't as involved in the gameplanning as he will be in the future, and I am okay with that. I would rather him spend his time recruiting and bring in an extra one or two future game changers than win one or two extra games this year. Now if we continue to struggle with on-field performance after he's gotten his recruiting classes in, I will be concerned. As of right now though, I am perfectly content with the way he is handling things.

Our record this year will not mean much in the grand scheme of things. Obviously, it stinks to lose games, but right now, I think us fans should look at the bigger picture. Auburn's recruiting is drastically improving, and this is reflected in the rankings. Auburn is sitting at 17th for 2024, and with a couple of potential flips, this number will rocket into the single digits. Auburn's 2025 class is currently ranked 5th, and there is plenty more to come. If Hugh is able to keep this up, I have a feeling that Auburn fans will happily forgive him a few years down the road for an ugly first-year record.