Could This Auburn Basketball Team Be "The One"?

Auburn has kicked off SEC play with two big wins over Arkansas and Texas A&M, and the expectations for this team continue to rise. We are now up to 16th in the AP Poll and all the way up to 4th in Kenpom. This team is efficient on both ends of the floor, and the depth seems to wear down just about every opponent. I will be honest, I did not have high expectations coming into this season. We had a lot of new players that didn't have much experience at this level. Now that I've seen that the new guys can compete and even dominate at the SEC level, I have begun to wonder, just how good can this team be?

We haven't played the strongest of schedules, but the way we are winning games is undeniably impressive. Auburn gave Arkansas its biggest loss in Bud Walton history, and last night's win over Texas A&M was only Auburn's second win over A&M in the last seven matchups. Winning these first two has set the tone for conference play, and I think this team is gelling more and more with each game.

Let's discuss some expectations for this team.

I fully expect this team to finish top 3 in the SEC. It is beginning to look like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Auburn are in tier 1 of the conference, and I would like to see each team play a few more conference games before I decide how we rank among the three. I think this Auburn team is suited to win both the regular season title and the SEC tournament title. It will really come down to how consistent we can be, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Last night's offensive production left a lot to be desired, and I still have not forgotten about the nightmare shooting performance at App State. Defense is important, but it can only carry you so far. Shot selection has been solid, we just have to hit em'.

I'm not going to make any predictions for the NCAA Tournament as of yet, because a lot is going to happen between now and March. Joe Lunardi (bracket expert) currently has us sitting at a three seed, and that looks about right to me. I could see us anywhere between a two-five seed if we keep up this level of play. I will tell you that Auburn has the historically necessary tools for a deep tournament run. Let me list those off for you...

-Top 20/15 offensive and defensive efficiency: I can't remember if it was top 20 or top 15 (Auburn fits both criteria), but I read last year where outside of a couple of exceptions, the general consensus is that the NCAA tournament champion has always finished in the top 20/15 of both of these categories. Winning six games in a row against the top teams in the country is a tall task, and you can't rely on only one side of the ball to carry you through March.

-Elite guard play: In these high-stakes games, it is important to have guards that can control pace and set up an offense. Auburn has two of the best true "point guards" in the SEC in Tre Donaldson and Aden Holloway. Holloway is the only freshman to have an Assist:Turnover ratio greater than 3.5 since 2008, and Donaldson has boasted a solid ratio in both of his two seasons. I trust both of these guys with the ball in their hands.

-DEPTH: Not only depth, but useful depth. Jaylin Williams played 35 minutes against A&M last night, and that was the first time an Auburn player has played 30 minutes or more all season. I don't think people understand how incredible of a stat that is. There is not one guy that we have to lean super heavily on. In fact, it seems like Auburn has a different MVP every game. This is super important in March, because the odds of one guy being able to carry the load are very slim. Multiple scoring options prevents teams from gameplanning to stop one particular guy. Gameplanning for Auburn is becoming increasingly difficult as guys continue to learn their role and hit their stride.

-Combo of experience and young talent: It is very rare that a young team makes a deep run in the tournament. Look at some of the teams that have made good runs over the past few years. San Diego State in 2023, Miami and North Carolina in 2022, Auburn in 2019, all of these teams were full of juniors and seniors. When the pressure is on, you have to lean on your vets that you know can handle it. These vets combined with a couple young stars drastically improve your chances at a deep run. Auburn has the vets (Cardwell, Williams, Broome, KD Johnson) along with some up-and-comers (Holloway, Donaldson, CBM).

This team has the pieces it needs to be "the one." It's all about hitting your stride at the right time. I think the 2022 Auburn team with Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler had the pieces, but they peaked too early. By the end of the season, the momentum had tapered off, and Auburn was in somewhat of a rut heading into tournament season. This resulted in an early exit from both the SEC and NCAA tournaments. You can't win and get complacent. Getting to the top requires sustained effort and full commitment from every guy on the roster. I'm excited to see what this Auburn team can accomplish.